Sunday, May 6, 2012

ODDS OF SUCCESS


Why Obama’s Osama Brag is so Dangerously Stupid


Countervailing Truths – Tex Manchester – 5/2/2012

I know from my experience in special ops and many years in leadership positions at Wing and numbered Air Force level, that the military does not offer the national command authority an op plan with only a 55% chance of success - not even when there is a rather innocuous down side potential. When planning an optional (i.e. unforced) mission our military operates closer to the 90% range - and higher when the down side potential is as serious as it was for the Bin Laden take out.

The mission was well planned, with a lot of back-op resources, alternate courses of action, redundancies, etc. Things went wrong on this mission - they even lost one of the primary helicopters for the critical ex-fil. Yet another helicopter "magically" appeared and they pulled it off, getting Bin Laden and, most importantly, getting all our men out.

Additional proof that there was excess capacity on this mission is the fact that they actually spent 40 minutes on the ground gathering intelligence before leaving. This shows a lot of confidence that they had things well under control. This was not the chancy mission that Obama would have us believe it was.

The professionalism, courage, and intensity of each team member are what made it a success.

No responsible leader would put our national interests up on a 55-45 bet. Our country cannot afford such a leader - nor one so stupid to brag about it, and when it isn't true.

Northwoods Patriots - Standing up for Faith, Family, Country - northwoodspatriotscomm@gmail.com

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