DEMOGRAPHICS MADE THE DIFFERENCE

The Campaign made no difference

http://www.dickmorris.com/the-campaign-made-no-difference/

Dick Morris – 11/10/2012

Two implications flow from these data:

1. Television is losing its impact. Particularly in the presidential race, it is astonishing that the almost one billion dollars spent advertising in eight states did very little to move the vote share. Voters are not watching television as much these days and those that are still turning it on are fast forwarding through the ads. And negative campaign ads — in fact, all ads, — are losing their impact.

2. Demographic voting is the new norm in America. You vote based on who you are, not where you live or how well each campaign has articulated its case. 93% of blacks, 70% of Latinos, 60% of those under 30, and 62% of single people, voted for Obama. And white married couples over 30 years of age voted for Romney. Not much else matters. A president who was elected and re-elected through identity politics has brought about a state of affairs where demographic voting determines the outcome. Our votes are predictable based on our race, ethnicity, age, and marital status well before anybody does any campaigning.

Even the vaunted ground games of the two parties didn’t do much. Voter turnout was eleven million lower than in 2008 — reversing the upward trends of the past four elections — and Obama’s vote share change from ’08 to ’12 was about the same in states where vigorous get out the vote campaigns raged and in those where they did not.

 

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